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Is Advertising About To Tip?

Last week was my annual pilgrimage to the same warm climate and sandy beach. Being Lutheran and a Minnesotan, the Weather God made me pay penance by siccing upon me a 36 hour layover in Atlanta on my way home. Over that excruciating period I read three items: the StarTribune’s Monday Business article on the state of affairs for local advertising agencies, the New York Times article on “The Future of the 30-Second Spot”, and Malcolm Gladwell’s excellent book “The Tipping Point.”

The first two pieces were consistent: advertisers, agencies, and publishers are all scratching their heads wondering a) how to reach audiences, b) how to perform and make money, and c) how to deliver audiences, in that order. The Tipping Point is a book that reveals how, when situations are ripe for upheaval, it’s often the little things that create change, not gigantic or deliberate forces. In the author’s own words:

It's a book about change. In particular, it's a book that presents a new way of understanding why change so often happens as quickly and as unexpectedly as it does. … It's that ideas and behavior and messages and products sometimes behave just like outbreaks of infectious disease. They are social epidemics. The Tipping Point is an examination of the social epidemics that surround us. (More from the author)

I would recommend this book to anyone in the advertising and marketing business and to all professionals who practice our somewhat scientific artform. The industry, the artform, and the demands of our talents are all sitting on the precipice of a monumental shift that will alter fundamental elements of our lives, both as professionals who create and consumers of media. We all know it. Something’s going to tip the industry. But what will it be?

To ponder that question, consider previous tipping points:

- The American Revolution – Paul Revere’s single midnight ride.

- The spread of AIDS in the US – A small group of promiscuous men.

- The dramatic fall of crime in New York City – Bernard Geotz’s subway shooting.

- The proliferation of the book “Devine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood” – The perfect book club book.


I believe – and this will come as no surprise to anyone who’s read any of my previous commentaries – that the end result of the tipping point in advertising and marketing will be a total commitment to accurate and rapid accountability for advertising and marketing spends on both client's and agency’s part. But accountability is not the tipping point because it’s not a discreet or tangible event – it’s the outcome.

The tipping point for us may be that the CMO of Nike goes on record in Advertising Age that it’s pulling 80% of its television advertising dollars in a single month to reinvest in a Web/text messaging/vidblog/urban street marketing hybrid that sweeps playgrounds and college campuses worldwide.

That would be interesting, but the tipping point? Could be.

The tipping point could be as simple as the CEO of Ogilvy and a writer for an influential advertising blog sharing a plane ride.

The tipping point could be a kid in his dormroom, composing a hip-hop song on his laptop where he references his favorite restaurant. The song is a hit becoming the number one download on iTunes, sending the restaurant franchise on an unprecedented growth curve.

And it cost absolutely nothing to create.

This week the first conference of the Word of Mouth Marketing Association (WOMMA) is taking place in Chicago. Our very own Josh Hawkins is participating. The conference – a first for a brand new association – sold out in just a few weeks and needed to move to a larger venue.

The group spent zero dollars on promotion.

That's a tip, folks.

Posted by Andrew at March 30, 2005